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Why Gambling on the NHL is a Terrible Idea
As the NHL season winds down, I’ll admit I’m a little bummed that the Puck Prediction model doesn’t look like it’s going to achieve my dream of outwitting the gambling markets in 2013-14; by all...
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Quantifying Shot Quality
In the world of hockey statistics, few subjects are more contentious than the notion that teams are capable of creating and sustaining high-percentage shooting. Much current thinking on the topic holds...
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The Most Unlikely NHL Playoff Upsets of the Last Five Years
Now that the regular season is winding down and the NHL playoffs are almost upon us, many fans are looking back at the thrilling victories and crushing losses of recent postseasons. Inevitably, these...
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Teams Fall Apart: Looking Back at the Ottawa Senators
The 2013-14 NHL season is wrapping up, and this week has seen the playoff field come into greater focus. I’ve looked back at the eliminations of the Sabres, the Panthers and Oilers, the Flames, Isles...
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Understanding Home-Ice Advantage in the NHL Playoffs
It’s just a few hours until the beginning of the 2014 NHL playoffs, and while most people are focused on previewing and trying to predict the first-round series, I thought it might be worthwhile to...
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Can Team Systems Influence PDO?
Ever since Vic Ferrari’s famous Trivia Craps piece brought us the “ugly stat” known as PDO, this measure of broadly-defined “puck luck” has been a critical tool in the analysis of hockey teams and...
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What We Can Predict, and What We Can’t
A couple of pieces in the past few weeks have me thinking. First, there was Matt Rudnitsky’s MONEYPUCK piece over at Sportsgrid: though I was pleased to see my work quoted warmly in the article, it...
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Understanding Possession Effects in Playoff Hockey
With the NHL postseason in full swing, I’ve started seeing pieces floating around the web suggesting that possession measures can predict the outcomes of playoff series. If you’ve kept up with what...
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Updated: Score-Adjusted Fenwick: 2007-08 to 2013-14
Earlier today, I published Score-Adjusted Fenwick (SAF) estimates for the last seven regular seasons. In the comments, Darryl Metcalf of Extra Skater noted differences between my numbers and his, and...
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The Scheduler’s Dilemma: Back-to-Back Games and Fatigue Effects in the NHL...
In the course of predicting all 1,230 games of the 2013-14 NHL season, one common occurrence made me doubt my model more than any other: back-to-back games. My model did a decent job overall when it...
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